Tutorial by Ted Lewis.
This tutorial will introduce you to the building blocks of risk-informed decision-making practiced within the homeland security enterprise. Risk assessment is a fundamental tool used to determine level of risk, and how best to allocate limited funds to reduce risk. This tutorial traces the origins of probabilistic risk analysis during the 1970s, Stackelberg competition from the 1980s, Bayesian belief networks in the 1990s, and self-organized criticality of complex networked systems developed in the early 2000s. The risk story begins with probability theory and ends with black swans and networks. Along the way, the tutorial will introduce you to some of the pioneers of risk analysis.