Shoot the Horse and Build a Better Barn Door

This video is developed around Ronald Dorman’s Naval Postgraduate School Master’s thesis, “Shoot the Horse and Build a Better Barn Door: Exploring the Potential for a Superforecasting Methodology to Strengthen the DHS Leadership Selection Process,” which examines the process of leadership selection at a network level and finds several systemic problems related to measurement, structure, and decision-making.

About the Presenter

Ronald Dorman entered public service 25 years ago and has held a variety of positions within the U.S. Department of Justice and the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. He has a B.A. from the University of North Carolina at Wilmington and holds a Master’s Degree in Security Studies from the Naval Postgraduate School’s Center for Homeland Defense and Security. He and his family currently live in Raleigh, North Carolina. He is not a homeland security expert and believes anyone claiming that title should be poked with a stick until they stop. His e-mail address is

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