This module briefly traces the mathematical achievements of Blaise Pascal, the inventor of probability theory, which form the foundation of modern science and statistics. Explains the popular conception that reality is predictable, rather than chaotic; that it tends to obey a bell curve. Connects this to Rasmussen’s Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), the foundation of DHS’ risk assessment of critical infrastructure (CI). Uses the 1990s telecommunications industry as an example. Finally, addresses the limitations of PRA. By Ted Lewis.
