Author: Ted Lewis

risk equation

Tutorial: Risk Methods and Models

Tutorial – video and text. Ted Lewis. This tutorial will introduce you to the building blocks of risk-informed decision-making practiced within the homeland security enterprise. Risk assessment is a fundamental tool used to determine level of...

Critical Infrastructure: Vulnerability Analysis and Protection

Syllabus — text. Ted Lewis. Critical Infrastructure protection is one of the cornerstones of homeland security. While PDD-63 lists 8 sectors, the National Strategy for Protection of Critical Infrastructure and Key Assets lists 11...

risk equation

MBRA (Model Based Risk Assessment)

Software. Ted Lewis. The MBRA tool supports the Model-Based Risk Assessment technique described in Critical Infrastructure Protection in Homeland Security (Lewis, 2015). There are two key components of MBRA: the network analysis and the...

Attacker Defender

Attacker Defender

Simulation/software — . Ted Lewis. Simulation of attacker and defender strategies in random, clustered, and scale-free networks. Shows that network hubs and betweener nodes are the most important in terms of both attacker and...

Bean Machine

Bean Machine

Simulation/software — . Ted Lewis. Simulation of the Galton-Watson bean machine often found in science museums. Beans are dropped through a maze of left/right forks in the road, and land at the bottom in...

Catastrophe7

Catastrophe7

Simulation/software — . Ted Lewis. Three simulations: Sticks, Amaral-Meyer, and Random Catastrophes. Sticks illustrates how systems fail due to outside incidents. Amaral-Meyer illustrates intrinsic failure (internal faults), and Random Catastrophes illustrates how any layered...

Complex Cycles

Complex Cycles

Simulation/software — . Ted Lewis. ComplexCycles java application plots data stored in a comma separated values (csv spreadsheet) file as a limit cycle(s). It also shows Altman Z-score bounds on values, which is useful...

Distributions

Distributions

Simulation/software — . Ted Lewis. This application produces the probability distributions for the sum (Normal), product(Gamma), minimum(Long-tailed), and maximum(long-tailed) of random numbers. It illustrates regression to the mean, extreme statistics, and the effect of...

Emergence

Emergence

Simulation/software — . Ted Lewis. This java application demonstrates network emergence according to organizing principles: increase clusters, node degree, betweeness, and follow-the-leader. It also animates the spread of an epidemic, scale-free link percolation, link...

Flashmob

Flashmob

Simulation/software. Ted Lewis. The Flashmob java application simulates the formation of flash mobs in a network where nodes are either red or blue. A node is colored red with probability proportional to the number...