Part 1: Social Identity Theory (Module 1): A Brief Overview of Terrorism Studies

The first module of this series provides a brief overview of the field of terrorism studies, following the evolution of terrorism throughout the 20th century to today, and its increasing importance as a subject of academic study. Starting with typical academic approaches (chiefly, the "psychological" and "power-political" models), we discover how these models are alone insufficient for explaining the complex motivations behind terrorist group and individual actions. As a supplement or alternative to these traditional models, Social Identity Theory (SIT) is posited as a way of accounting for the seemingly inexplicable or "irrational" acts of terrorist and other violent subnational groups.

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Part 2: Social Identity Theory (Module 2): What is Social Identity Theory?

This module will provide you with a working definition of SIT and demonstrate its efficacy as a framework for understanding individual and group dynamics. When considered alongside the previous module, you should be able to see how SIT differs from past scholarly approaches to terrorism studies. Additionally, this module will prepare you for applying the language and framework of SIT to the phenomenon we refer to as "religious terrorism." How can we explain the political, tactical and strategic choices made by individual movements and groups? How can we explain the differences in specific groups' ideological emphasis, resilience and success? How are we to understand revolutionary commitment in order to deal with it in its specific contexts? How can SIT provide more accurate analysis to decision-makers through a framework for rigorous critical thinking?

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Part 3: Religious and Theologically Motivated Terrorism (Module 1)

Anyone who has traveled, watched TV or listened to the radio in recent years knows that terrorism has radically impacted American society. Religious terrorism in particular has become an important national security issue, as many of the most recognizable terrorist attacks in the past 15 years seem to have been motivated by religion or theology. As members of the counterterrorism community, we must ask ourselves: has religious extremism become a serious, violent threat to the US? Or is the problem of religious terrorism not quite so simple? Many agree that religious terrorism is one of the most significant forms of political violence being practiced today, but few know what it actually is and how it differs from other motivations behind sub-national political violence - for example, the extreme right of left, or single-issue motivations. This module is part one of a 2-part series on the subject of religious terrorism and these modules build on the information presented in the Social Identity Theory lectures. Supplementing your theoretical understanding of terrorism with clarifying the correlation between developing social identities and religious and theologically motivated terrorism and terrorist groups, these modules address the role of religious and theological terrorism in contemporary society and demonstrate how it pertains to the counterterrorism field.

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Part 4: Religious and Theologically Motivated Terrorism (Module 2)

This module builds on information presented in module 1 of this series and provides a more in-depth understanding of contemporary religious terrorist groups and their belief systems, including radical Islamic groups (al-Qa'ida, the Taliban, and Hizbullah), Christian Identity groups, and Gush Emunim, a Jewish extremist group committed to establishing Jewish settlements in the West Bank. Exploring various religious extremist groups from each of the Abrahamic religions (Christianity, Judaism, and Islam), this final module in the series on Social Identity and religious terrorism will closely investigate how a social scientific perspective informs contemporary studies of the phenomenon we refer to as religious terrorism.

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Part 1: Counter-terrorism in the UK - Module 1: History, Radicalisation and the current Al-Qaeda Threat

This first module considers the recent history of terrorism in the UK, radicalization amongst the UK's Muslim Community, and the UK's current threat from Al-Qaeda. The "Irish Troubles". The impact of the "Troubles" on UK counterterrorism policy. The development of UK counterterrorism legislation. The current Al-Qaeda threat in the UK. The range of the Al-Qaeda threat in the UK. The Islamic community in the UK. Islamic radicalization in the UK. The preparation and execution of an attack.

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Part 2: Counter-terrorism in the UK - Module 2: Policy Response

This module addresses the development of national security strategy since 2001, touching on the guiding principles behind contemporary UK counterterrorism policy, as well as the history that informs it. UK counterterrorism strategy can be organized according to the "Four P's": PREVENT, PROTECT, PREPARE, and PURSUE. Additionally, this module discusses the roles and responsibilities of various national security entities, including the Centre for Protection of National Infrastructure (CPNI), as well as the National Doctrine for Interagency Counterterrorism Response. The module concludes with an examination of the UK Government's "Four D's" approach to the WMD threat: DISSUADE, DETECT, DENY, and DEFEND.

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Part 3: Counter-terrorism in the UK - Module 3: Counterterrorism Structure and the Pursuit of Terrorists

This final module in the series explores the British domestic counterterrorism structure, emphasizing the importance of interagency cooperation in UK counterterrorism operations. It touches on the role of the British Security Service (MI5), the Special Branches within each UK police force, the Metropolitan Police Service Counter Terrorism Command, and the Crown Prosecution Service. Additionally, it covers the organization of a major covert terrorist operation.

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Steel Wheel Security

We spend so much time thinking and talking about aviation security, it clearly holds a key place within the national risk hierarchy. But as critical as the aviation network is for the United States, the rail network is an equally vital part of national life. In this module, Kip Hawley, former Director of TSA, discusses how to best manage risk in the freight rail sector.

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Smarter Security

It has been over ten years since the September 11 terrorist attacks, yet most would agree that commercial airline passengers still don't experience smart security at today's airport security checkpoints. If 99.9% of passengers pose no terrorist risk whatsoever, why is every one of them treated as if they are a high-risk threat? This module, by former Administrator of the Transportation Security Administration, Kip Hawley, examines some of the reasons why "smart security" is so difficult - and how a combination of varied tactics is the most effective solution - and why.

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Levy Flights and Walks

Levy flights and walks are paths taken by animals and humans that qualify for the Casinos of Extremistan because they obey power laws. Professor Ted Lewis uses the spread of SARS and terrorism to illustrate Levy flights and walks, and show that epidemics and terrorism obey power laws just like any other normal accident of Extremistan. In this lecture, Dr. Lewis makes several surprising claims. For example, he suggests that terrorism is destined to die out, because of the shape of its power law.

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The Underwear Bomber

The Case of the Underwear Bomber, Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab's failed attempt to blow up a passenger plane on Christmas Day, 2009, is chiefly remembered as a shocking demonstration of the aviation system's vulnerability. Eight years and billions of dollars after 9/11, a single man was able to defeat security and bring a bomb onto a commercial airliner, very nearly destroying it and killing 300 innocent travelers. It appears that the primary lessons learned are that we have to improve our intelligence coordination and upgrade security technology at airport checkpoints. Rather than look at situations from "Outside-In" - starting from where you are and working towards the danger you are trying to avoid - you this module suggests that instead you reverse-engineer backwards from the worst-case scenario, trying to take away critical elements that might expose new ways of defeating security. This risk management approach is termed by Kip Hawley, former Administrator for the Transportation Security Administration (TSA), as "Inside-Out" Risk Management.

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Pascal's Triangle: The Story of Chance and Risk

This module briefly traces the mathematical achievements of Blaise Pascal, the inventor of probability theory, which form the foundation of modern science and statistics. Explains the popular conception that reality is predictable, rather than chaotic; that it tends to obey a bell curve. Connects this to Rasmussen's Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), the foundation of DHS' risk assessment of critical infrastructure (CI). Uses the 1990s telecommunications industry as an example. Finally, addresses the limitations of PRA.

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Simple Risk

This module defines "simple risk," using this definition to drive an analysis of the telecommunications industry. Also discusses the limitations of this definition, especially when considering human-made incidents, versus random accidents. Uses the 1995 Oklahoma Federal Building bombing as an example of risk due to human-caused incident. Also discusses Return-On-Investment (ROI), an extension of risk that incorporates a cost-benefit factor. Finally, addresses how risk affects the decisions made by policymakers, and suggests effective ways for policymakers to get the most "bang for the buck" in terms of protecting and hardening critical infrastructure (CI).

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California on Fire: An Illustration of Self-Organized Criticality

Identifies Self-Organized Criticality (SOC), one of the fundamental principles of risk, specifically relating it to the 2007 California wildfires. Simulates a model of forest fires, as well as explains why some elements of infrastructure are more resilient to catastrophe than others. Demonstrates how high-risk hazards (like wildfires) obey a power law rather than a bell curve, and thus reside in Extremistan. Defines percolation as increased density, and talks about how high-risk hazards require policy change to decrease percolation in order to prevent (or, at least, mitigate) disastrous consequences.

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Living in Extremistan: how exceedence probability and PML risk relate to planning, prevention, and response in homeland security.

This module discusses how reality bears much resemblance to Nicholas Taleb's "Extremistan," a metaphorical world of extremes (as opposed to Pascal's world of averages). Discusses how mathematics inform policy, and why this can become problematic for policymakers and the public at large. Relates the classification of high and low risks. A recommendation for living in Extremistan: Expect the unexpected.

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The Financial Meltdown of 2008: A Case Study

This module discusses the banking/financial sector of the US economy as one of the Federal government's identified elements of critical infrastructure (CI). Analyzes of the 2008 subprime mortgage collapse by providing historical context and applying the Amaral-Meyer Network to simulate the crash. Suggests that the most catastrophic failure of the market is caused not by being "too big to fail," but "connected to fail." Suggests how policymakers should prevent future catastrophes by decreasing connection, rather than increasing protection, to at-risk connectors.

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Part 1: Homeland Security in Israel - Terrorism Threats and the Legal Environment

This first module on Homeland Security in Israel focuses on the threat environment and the legal and political realities within which Israeli counterterrorism and homeland security policies operate. Two categories of ongoing terrorist threats exist in Israel; 'conventional' and 'mega-terror threats.' Here, Dr. Nadav Morag provides a brief history of the Israeli death toll from terrorism over the decades of the country's existence. Acts of terror come in a variety of attack forms, including firearms, rockets/mortars, anti-tanks, and suicide bombers. Depictions of Israel's system of government are also provided, along with information concerning the Israeli legal environment and counterterrorism strategy.

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Part 2: Homeland Security in Israel - The Organizational and Operational Environments

This second module concerning Homeland Security in Israel focuses on the organizational and operational environments that frame Israeli counterterrorism strategies. Contrary to the United States, Israel has only a small number of agencies that are actively engaged in various aspects of counterterrorism intelligence-gathering, combat, and law enforcement. The primary agencies and organizations within Israel are the Israel Police, the Israel Security Agency (ISA), the Israel Defense Force (IDF), and the Institute for Intelligence and Special Duties. We are also provided with a summary of Israel's governmental organization, and a comparative analysis of the United States and Israeli systems of government and law enforcement.

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Part 3: Homeland Security in Israel - Counterterrorism Strategies

In this third installment of the four-part series regarding the nature of Homeland Security in Israel, Dr. Nadav Morag turns to the issue of Israel's counterterrorism policies, specifically focusing on deterrence, intelligence, prevention, executive action, and public cooperation efforts. The measures taken to neutralize threats specifically on the West Bank and in Gaza are used as examples of Israel's success in counterterrorism. Statistically speaking, there has been a significant decrease in the number of fatalities over time, as well as a marked improvement in the amount of attacks thwarted. Israel's strategy for coping with terrorism respects that terrorism can only be reduced, and cannot be completely eradicated.

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Part 4: Homeland Security in Israel - The Societal and First Responder Environments

Dr. Nadav Morag's final lecture in this four-part series focuses on the societal and emergency responder environments in Israel. Preparedness and response efforts in Israel is traditionally multifaceted; as it prepares the public, and prepares the emergency responder community. Each sect strategizes for both long-term and short-term precautionary measures. The HFC (Home Front Command) is introduced as Israel's central organization for the preparation of the public, along with the police, EMS, fire, public health and hospital systems, and public transportation system, among others. Dr. Morag suggests that the battle with terrorists will largely be decided by the targeted society's resilience (or lack thereof), and therefore much effort in Israel is put into creating and maintaining that resiliency.

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Part 2: The Global Jihadi Threat: The Role of Jihad in Islam

The subject of Jihad has been highly controversial as of late for both Muslims and non-Muslims. Dr. Nadav Morag emphasizes that Islamic tradition refers to two types of Jihad, one greater and one lesser: the combat of the temptation of sin, and the fighting of "enemies of God." The two varieties of Jihad are subject to interpretation, which is where we see discrepancies in the ways it is implemented. This module will focus on the various roles that Jihad has played and continues to play in Islam, and attempt to illuminate some of the complexity in the concept of Islam.

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Part 5: The Global Jihadi Threat: Islam in the West: Integration, Isolation, Radicalization

In the final segment of his five-part series concerning Islamic extremism, Dr. Nadav Morag depicts the role of Islam in the West, as well as several challenges relating to the integration of Muslims into Western society. He evaluates the process of radicalization occurring in some Muslim communities in the West, and addresses the attendant threat of increasing "home-grown" Jihadist terrorism. Unfortunately, there is a collective anger amongst radicalized Western Muslims against both real and imagined discrimination. Also, the identity of "globalized Islam" now values emotion more so than logic - sensing something is more important than understanding it. This approach lends itself to the simplistic, literalist, and unquestioning attitude of the Jihadists. Thus, Western societies are faced with several challenges concerning the integration of Muslims. They must choose a method that will encourage their acceptance of pluralism, democracy, and moderate interpretations of Islam, while simultaneously allowing Muslims to give voice and form to their religious faith.

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Part 1: Theory of Surprise

This module focuses on the theory of surprise - how states, non-state actors, or individuals attempt to surprise their opponents and why they often succeed, how surprise affects strategic interactions, and why some initiatives succeed spectacularly, only to end in disaster for the side that initially benefited from surprise. The theory of surprise is derived largely from military expert Michael Handel's writings, which also call on the Prussian philosopher Clausewitz's concepts of strategy and war. Their combined theories explain why those who rely on surprise might win a battle, but rarely achieve overall victory in war. This module goes on to depict surprise as an enabler of temporary superiority, but also elucidates its shortcomings and the risks included therein.

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Part 1: The Global Jihadi Threat: Islam, Basic Principles, Origins and Divisions

Dr. Nadav Morag's introduction to Islam serves as a backdrop for his discussion of the multifaceted Jihadist threat, as depicted in later modules. The principles, origins and divisions of Islam are critical to discerning the characteristics of the culture as a whole. Islam is an all-encompassing way of life, monopolizing social, legal, economic, and political affairs. This module provides vocabulary, geography, and specific historical context to better understand the nature of the religion. As one of the fastest growing religions in the world, it is imperative that we gain familiarity with the central beliefs, practices, history, and schisms of Islam.

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Part 3: The Global Jihadi Threat: Islamic Civilization and the Western Challenge

In Dr. Nadav Morag's third depiction of the global Jihadi threat, he explores the historical relationship between Islamic and Western civilizations, as well as the ways in which the Islamic world has attempted to cope with the reality of Western power and influence, and the pull of Modernization. When Muslims were in a position of power, Christians were expected to submit to a status unequal to that of Muslims. Their civilization was superior not only in terms of thought, scholarship, technology, and the arts, but even in terms of women's and civil rights. From these advanced achievements stemmed three critical groups; the Fundamentalists, Westernizers, and Reformists. He later touches on topics concerning Christianity and conflict, Muslim expansion, and the rise of Europe.

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Part 4: The Global Jihadi Threat: The Development of Islamic Extremism: From Ibn Abd al-Wahhab to Bin Laden

Dr. Nadav Morag focuses on the development of Islamic extremism as well as the approaches of various Muslim radicals in this fourth analysis of the Global Jihadi threat. Calling on the importance of honor innate to Islamic societies, Morag illustrates the Fundamentalist movement that has inspired extremism in recent years. The Fundamentalist's position is that true, authentic Islam has been corrupted through the introduction of new ideas and practices. Morag also offers a close examination of the Wahhabist perspective within Fundamentalism, which emphasizes complete submission to God and the Quran. Several extremists are then introduced, including Sayyid Qutb, who endorses a violent Jihad and philosophy of divine sovereignty. We are then familiarized with Abdullah Azzam, Ayman al-Zawahiri, and Osama bin Laden, followed by the introduction of terrorist group Al Queda.

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Part 2: Theory of Surprise

Much is written about intelligence failure, but little is written about the failure of surprise. Scholars have focused on successful surprise at the operational level of war, not on the effect of surprise in achieving overall victory. In this second module concerning the theory of surprise, we emphasize that surprise attacks often fail disastrously because the side undertaking the initiative miscalculates in several ways. It is also suggested that surprise fails because it leads the weaker side in the conflict to forget that when the effects of surprise dissipate, the dialectic of war returns with a vengeance. We can see examples of this type of mistake in the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor. The trick now lies in making operational use of the theory of surprise.

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Part 1: From Combined Arms to Combined Intelligence: Philosophy, Doctrine & Operations - Module I

Those who master combined arms operations generally achieve victory in war. The mastery of combined arms operations, however, is no simple matter. Organizational culture and bureaucratic preferences can impede the integration of forces and operations. The particulars of an operation, such as geography, leadership objectives, and the capabilities and intent of specific enemies, can create significant challenges as well. This module addresses the ways in which combined arms operations can be applied, for instance; the basic logic of combined arms operations can be applied to the functional disciplines of imagery intelligence (IMINT); signals intelligence (SIGINT); measures and signals intelligence (MASINT); human intelligence (HUMINT), and open source intelligence (OSINT). The philosophy of combined arms suggests that whenever possible, a commander should employ multiple categories of forces and weapons in an integrated manner - the goal being to maximize individual effectiveness, offset their limitations, and produce a greater combined effect.

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Part 2: From Combined Arms to Combined Intelligence: Philosophy, Doctrine & Operations - Module II

In this second presentation concerning combined arms operations, the philosophies and doctrines of several integrated intelligence agencies are used as illustrations of success in American government. MASINT, HUMINT, OSINT, SIGINT, and IMINT partake in this integrated system. This module outlines each group's role in combined arms operations, including intelligence gathering activities that combine disparate elements outside the definitions of the major disciplines. Understanding the inherent attributes, strengths, and weaknesses of each intelligence discipline provides a foundation for undertaking a more contextual analysis concerning how to integrate them according to a combined arms philosophy.

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Part 3: From Combined Arms to Combined Intelligence: Philosophy, Doctrine & Operations - Module III

There are several important parallels that can be drawn between the combined arms philosophy and the world of intelligence. A combined intelligence philosophy would provide the intelligence community further advantages over intelligence services maintained by state actors and the networked operations of non-state actors. This kind of synergy should give the U.S. a fundamental and persistent winning advantage in the conduct of its foreign and defense policies. This last module in a three-part series illustrates the 'concepts' and 'doctrine' of the different intelligence disciplines. 'Concepts' put forth guideposts for metering, sequencing and combining the employment of these disciplines, while 'doctrine' is a game plan for turning philosophy into organizational and procedural realities. It is the purpose of this presentation to illuminate the intriguing possibilities a combined philosophy offers the intelligence community.

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Comparing Models

This module will offer a complete comparison of model analyses, focusing on communicable diseases, and what to look for when conducting research, which questions to ask, ways to analyze and interpret results, and most importantly - how to utilize models and their results to form better assessments of situations. We will introduce a fictional virus, "Agent X," to demonstrate real-life ways the different model forms may be applied. You will also be introduced to a model analysis guideline, which depicts the importance of scope and focus within a model, some of the confounding factors that can effect a study (disease, population, scenario, and diagnosis specifics), and the factors that, if not included, can manipulate the results of a study (sleep, stress, exposure, environmental factors, immunity, etc). This module also shares the several forms of patterns implicit to model analysis: random (including homogenous and heterogenous) and non-random patterns, which are easily understandable and useful for gaining accurate data.

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Disease Models - An Overview

In this module, we are going to look at public health response planning in greater depth. It affects all first responder personnel, including police, EMS, fire, medical, and public health professionals in a variety of ways. Public health response plans make assumptions on the availability of police to provide security at hospitals and vaccine distribution centers, on the availability of EMS to transport sick and injured individuals, and on medical establishments and medical personnel to be able to treat certain numbers of patients and types of illness. Models are designed to help us understand these complex systems, such as populations subject to an infectious disease and in need of medical aid. In order to evaluate these processes in model form, we will simplify the real world – focusing on information and relationships that are crucial. The theoretical world permits us to: control of the degree of complexity, choose the scope of consideration, experiment without significant consequences, take from reality only factors that are considered relevant, and leave out any factors considered irrelevant.

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Public Health in the US

This module is designed to introduce you to the broader concept of what public health is. When defining public health, it is often unclear what is actually meant, or whom we are talking about. This module will attempt to clarify who the actors are, their responsibilities, their mandates, and the fiscal commitments and ties involved therein. Public health in the United States has three core functions; assessment of diseases, policy development, and condition assurance. Following this introduction to public health services, we will introduce the levels of responsibility assigned to the four main players in public health: the federal government, state and local health, non-governmental institutions, and the professional medical community. These big four must work together to be effective in policy making and implementation, cooperate intelligently with each other, and add diversity to the public health system.

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Introduction to Terrorism Typology, Targets and Organizations

According to Dr. Nadav Morag, "as with any other phenomenon, researchers and policy analysts who attempt to study terrorism are faced with the problem of defining the nature and boundaries of the phenomenon in question." In this introduction to terrorism, Dr. Morag emphasizes the typology, targets, and organizations associated therein. He suggests that there are four basic methods to defining terrorism; based on the act itself, on those who carry it out, on the root cause for the violence perpetrated by the terrorists, or on the nature of the policy response to the terrorism. Some argue, even, that terrorism need not be violent. While countries offer national definitions of terrorism, each interpretation reflects the interests and mindsets of the governments that formulated them. Despite these typological discrepancies, Dr. Morag goes on to analyze the aims, targets, and incentives of various terrorist groups.

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